Funds hesitate to shift CBOT grain, oilseed views as futures surge

Chicago grain and oilseed futures have had a rowdy begin to March as warfare has erupted between two key exporters.

However regardless of the market volatility, buyers have been considerably extra timid than anticipated in the case of large place strikes, the second week in a row for such a theme.

Commodity funds had been pegged as consumers of greater than 100,000 mixed CBOT corn and wheat futures within the week ended March 1, however wheat shopping for was comparatively gentle, and the commerce had the utterly incorrect learn on corn.

Buyers’ outright quick positions throughout Chicago grains and oilseeds are traditionally gentle, particularly in corn and the soy advanced. Nevertheless, industrial finish customers’ outright shorts are sizable, leaving them uncovered throughout worth surges as occurred final week.

International commodity markets have been rocked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because it started full-on late final month. The 2 international locations account for 29% of world wheat exports and almost 80% of sunflower oil, Ukraine ships 16% of the world’s corn, and exports out of the area are successfully lower off.

Chicago wheat futures inside the final a number of periods have reached costs seen solely a handful of instances, all in 2008. Might wheat WK2 settled up the day by day 50 cent-per-bushel restrict on March 1, capping off a 15% achieve for the week.

However cash managers axed solely 11,000 futures and choices contracts from their CBOT wheat web quick within the week ended March 1, a fraction of expectations, in response to information from the US Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee. Learn full story

That was evenly break up between new longs and quick overlaying, and the ensuing web in need of 7,036 contracts is funds’ least bearish since December.

CBOT Might wheat settled up the expanded 75-cent restrict in every of the final three periods, a staggering 23% achieve, ending Friday at $12.09 per bushel. December futures WZ2 ended 5% greater between Wednesday and Friday, ending at $9.80 and at an unprecedented low cost to close by contracts.

Business gross shorts in CBOT wheat as of March 1 have been a bit above the current common for the date at 191,381 contracts. That features a weekly surge of almost 20,000 contracts, essentially the most since November, which is equal to 100 million bushels.


Business finish customers’ gross shorts in CBOT corn and soybeans are nicely above regular however off the year-ago highs. They’ve maintained corn shorts in current weeks round 1.18 million contracts, although they shed 8% of soybean shorts within the final two weeks, placing it close to 570,000 contracts on March 1.

Most-active corn futures cv1 jumped nearly 8% within the week ended March 1, prompting expectations for big fund shopping for, however cash managers lowered their web lengthy to 349,222 futures and choices contracts from 354,436 every week earlier. Each longs and shorts have been eradicated, and the week featured funds’ largest quick overlaying in corn since October.

Soybean futures sv1 climbed 3.4% by March 1, and cash managers trimmed their web lengthy by about 4,600 to 175,721 futures and choices contracts, additionally towards the prediction for getting. Few outright soy shorts stay to be lined as that quantity dropped beneath 10,000 final week.

The lack of corn exports out of Ukraine and considerations for its upcoming harvest, in addition to uncertainties over US plantings of each corn and soybeans, have been the main target for corn and bean merchants final week. Export demand for US soybeans has been very robust in gentle of Brazil’s excessive crop shortfalls.

Might corn CK2 rose almost 4% within the final three periods although the vary lined greater than 70 cents per bushel, settling Friday at $7.54-1/4 after reaching the best ranges since 2012. Might beans SK2 fell 1.7% throughout the interval with a variety of almost 65 cents, ending Friday at $16.60-1/2.- Reuters


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