Funds’ bullish CBOT bets swell additional as provide fears simmer

Speculators’ enthusiasm towards Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds crept nearer to file ranges final week as tighter-than-usual world stockpiles and uncertainty in Ukraine proceed to help costs.

Minimal grain and oilseed shipments out of Ukraine have disrupted and even rerouted international commerce, one instance being China’s current US corn purchases, the primary in practically a yr. Moscow prompt final week that the battle’s finish could not come quickly, additional spooking merchants.

Ukraine’s agriculture ministry mentioned Friday that farmers would possibly plant extra spring crops than beforehand thought, however nonetheless 17% lower than final yr. Apprehension towards manufacturing potential and climate in North and South America has additionally added to jitters.

Nonetheless, some bearish components lurk. Agricultural import demand from prime international purchaser China has been considerably disappointing amid lockdowns and poor producer margins, largely affecting soybeans. US farmers are anticipated to plant a file soybean space this spring.

Within the week ended April 12, cash managers elevated their web lengthy in CBOT soybean futures and choices to 171,873 contracts from 163,655 per week earlier, in line with knowledge from the US Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee.

That was based mostly on the addition of latest longs and was related to a 2.4% achieve in most-active soybean futures sv1which traded simply shy of $17 per bushel final Monday.

New-crop November soybeans SX2 briefly traded beneath US$14 per bushel on April 1, the bottom since early February, however they reached $15.20 on Thursday earlier than settling at $15.01-1/2. The contract excessive of $15.55 was set on Feb. 24.

The US markets had been closed on Friday, however the US Division of Agriculture introduced a slew of soybean gross sales that morning totaling 838,000 tonnes, predominantly to China. Learn full story Some 64% of that was for 2022-23 supply.

Additionally on Friday, the Nationwide Oilseed Processors Affiliation confirmed that US soybean oil shares on the finish of March fell 7.3% on the month, although they had been predicted to rise fractionally. Learn full story A decrease oil yield and stronger-than-expected demand are probably culprits.

CBOT soybean oil futures BOv1 on Wednesday hit an all-time excessive for the most-active month of 78.75 cents per pound after rising 4.2% within the week ended April 12. Cash managers elevated their web lengthy by about 7,300 contracts that week to 84,063 futures and choices contracts.

Soyoil rose one other 2% within the final two buying and selling classes. Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures FCPOc3 on Friday closed at a one-month excessive, capping off its greatest weekly achieve in six months. Learn full story Tight vegoil provides have been made worse by the export halt in Ukraine, the highest provider of sunflower oil.

CBOT soybean meal SMv1 was the one loser among the many grains and oilsseeds via April 12, shedding 1%, and cash managers minimize greater than 7,000 contracts from their web lengthy. Nonetheless, the ensuing 93,411 futures and choices contracts is extraordinarily bullish in context.


Cash managers via April 12 lifted their web lengthy in CBOT corn futures and choices to 369,952 contracts from 362,306 the week earlier than. Most-active CBOT corn CV1 added greater than 2% within the interval and gained an extra 1% between Wednesday and Thursday.

Finish customers purchased extra corn via April 12, and commodity index merchants elevated their whole variety of positions by 2% to over 700,000 contracts, essentially the most since June 2021.

Apart from corn provides out of Ukraine, market members have been involved with the chilly US climate and the potential affect on corn planting, although forecasts late final week confirmed possibilities for favorable heat towards the tip of the month. CBOT corn hit contract highs on Thursday, together with $7.39 per bushel for new-crop December futures CZ2,

Wheat merchants are nonetheless uneasy in regards to the battle in key exporter Ukraine and the poor state of the US wheat crop. CBOT wheat futures wv1 surged 6.4% within the week ended April 12. Kansas Metropolis wheat KWN2 added 7.6% and Minneapolis MWEN2 rose 4%.

Cash managers in that interval added lower than 3,000 contracts to their CBOT wheat web lengthy, which reached 16,639 futures and choices contracts. They added greater than 4,000 KC contracts, and their web lengthy of 49,392 is a 14-week excessive. Their Minneapolis web lengthy remained above 18,000 contracts.

All three wheat contracts drifted fractionally decrease between Wednesday and Thursday. Most-active Chicago wheat Thursday hit $11.35-1/4 per bushel, its highest since March 23, although it settled at 11.04-1/2.

Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her personal.-Reuters


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